Investors have discussed a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic's November share sale, down from the roughly $2 trillion previously circulating. The reason given is growth rate rather than growth: third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, up about 45% from $11.6 billion, which is an extraordinary number in absolute terms and a slower one than the quarters before it.
That is the whole argument in one line. A company compounding at 45% a quarter is not in trouble; a company priced for faster than 45% a quarter is mispriced. The reported push to $1.5 trillion is investors repricing the multiple, not the business.
Two cautions on the figures. The revenue number comes from people familiar with the matter rather than a filing, and no regulatory document has confirmed it. The valuation is described as under discussion ahead of the sale, not settled — the number that matters will be the one in the prospectus.
Sources:
CNBC ·
CryptoBriefing ·
The Decoder