QUICK ANSWER
SpaceX IPO prices tonight June 11 after market close at a fixed $135/share. SPCX begins trading on Nasdaq tomorrow June 12. Deal: ~$75 billion raise, $1.77 trillion valuation. IPO reportedly twice oversubscribed with $10B+ institutional orders. MSCI will apply early inclusion rules - passive index inflows expected. Retail access via Robinhood, Fidelity, and Schwab (30% allocation). 366-day insider lockup - no insider selling until June 2027. Morningstar fair value: $780 billion.
What Happens Tonight and Tomorrow
| Time |
Event |
| Tonight June 11, after 4PM ET |
IPO officially priced at $135/share. Underwriters notify institutional allocations. Retail allocations confirmed via Robinhood, Fidelity, Schwab |
| June 11 evening |
1,500 retail investors attend dedicated SpaceX retail IPO event in New York |
| Tomorrow June 12, pre-market |
SPCX begins trading on Nasdaq. First print determines whether $135 was priced rich or cheap. Expect significant volatility given thin initial free float |
| June 2027 (approx) |
366-day insider lockup expires. First window for insider selling. Morningstar flags this as "Max Q" for SPCX - maximum structural pressure on the stock |
Why the Oversubscription and MSCI Inclusion Matter
The IPO is reportedly twice oversubscribed with over $10 billion in institutional orders verified. MSCI announced on June 9 that it will apply its usual treatment for the early inclusion in its Global Standard Indexes of large-sized IPOs. This is a significant structural tailwind that was not confirmed until after most of our earlier SpaceX IPO coverage was written. Early MSCI inclusion means every passive fund tracking MSCI indexes - which manage trillions of dollars - will need to buy SPCX to maintain their index weights. This creates structural buy-side demand in the first 30-90 trading days post-IPO that is largely independent of whether fundamental investors consider the stock fairly valued.
The thin free float amplifies this. SpaceX's insider lockup is 366 days - one day longer than the standard 180-day lockup. That means the initial tradeable supply is only the IPO shares (about $75 billion worth) rather than the full $1.77 trillion market cap. When forced buyers (passive index funds) enter a market with limited supply, prices move sharply. This cuts both ways: MSCI-driven buying could push SPCX significantly above $135 in the first weeks, but it also means the stock could correct sharply once the structural buying pressure subsides and the lockup expiry approaches in June 2027.
The Three Scenarios for Day One Trading
Bull scenario - SPCX opens above $150
Oversubscription demand + MSCI index inclusion buying + retail enthusiasm push the stock above $150 on day one. The AI infrastructure narrative (Colossus generating $2.17B/month from Anthropic and Google) validates the premium multiple. Probability increases if broader market sentiment is positive on June 12.
Base scenario - SPCX trades $130-$155
The fixed $135 price means "above range" or "below range" signals do not apply. Market discovery happens at open. With twice oversubscription and MSCI inclusion demand, a 10-15% pop from the IPO price ($148-$155) would be consistent with major oversubscribed IPOs historically. Trading stabilizes within a band as institutional allocations are absorbed.
Bear scenario - SPCX opens below $135
If broader market conditions deteriorate between tonight's pricing and tomorrow's open, or if early institutional sellers take profits at IPO price, SPCX could open below $135. Morningstar's $780B valuation ($60/share equivalent) is a significant discount to the offer price. A below-issue open would be a major negative signal but would not necessarily indicate the long-term thesis is wrong.
The Numbers That Define the Investment Thesis
Starlink brought in $11.387 billion in 2025 revenue with $4.423 billion in operating profit and $7.168 billion in segment adjusted EBITDA, a 63% EBITDA margin. Connectivity is the main anchor business with 10.3 million subscribers as of March 2026. This is the business that justifies the base case. The AI infrastructure upside - $2.17 billion per month from Anthropic and Google contracts at Colossus - is either a large and growing annuity or a terminable revenue stream that disappears with 90 days' notice. The $75 billion raise at $1.77 trillion prices in both, at roughly 109-116x SpaceX's 2025 trailing revenue. That multiple requires continued hypergrowth from multiple vectors simultaneously.
For the full SpaceX IPO breakdown including the S-1 financials and AI infrastructure analysis, see our SpaceX IPO guide, the Google-SpaceX $920M compute deal, and the June 2026 AI news calendar for ongoing coverage once trading begins tomorrow.