QUICK FACTS - SPCX DAY ONE
● Ticker: SPCX on Nasdaq
● IPO price: $135 per share (fixed)
● Shares sold: 555.5 million Class A (plus 83.3M underwriter option)
● Total raised: $75 billion (record — previous record: Saudi Aramco $29.4B in 2019)
● Valuation: $1.77 trillion (13.1 billion total shares outstanding)
● Offering closes: June 15, 2026
● MSCI inclusion: Begins June 13 — passive index fund buying starts day 2
● Nasdaq-100 eligible: On or around July 7 (15 trading days post-listing, new Nasdaq rule)
● Insider lockup: 366 days — no insider selling until ~June 2027
The Record-Setting Numbers
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on the evening of June 11, 2026, confirming the fixed price it announced at the start of its investor roadshow on June 4. With 13.1 billion total shares outstanding, the $135 price implies a market capitalisation of $1.77 trillion - making SpaceX the seventh-largest US company by market cap at listing, above Tesla and below Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
The $75 billion raised across 555.5 million Class A shares is the largest IPO in history by a significant margin. Saudi Aramco held the previous record at $29.4 billion in 2019. SpaceX raises more than twice that in a single offering. The underwriters - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citigroup - hold a standard 30-day greenshoe option to purchase an additional 83.3 million shares at the $135 price, which would add $11.2 billion and push total proceeds to $86.2 billion if exercised in full. The offering is expected to close on June 15, 2026.
The Three Businesses Inside SPCX
| Segment |
2025 Revenue |
2025 Operating Profit |
EBITDA Margin |
Notes |
| Connectivity (Starlink) |
$11.387B |
$4.423B |
63% |
10.3M subscribers; only profitable segment |
| Launch & Space Systems |
Included in total |
Profitable |
Positive |
Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship dev |
| AI & Compute (xAI) |
Growing |
-$6.36B |
Negative |
Grok models, Colossus data centers, Cursor |
The investment thesis lives or dies on Starlink. The connectivity segment generated $11.387 billion in 2025 revenue with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin and subscriber growth from 4.5 million at the start of 2025 to over 10.3 million by early 2026 — more than doubling in 15 months. That trajectory is what justifies the premium multiple. The xAI segment's $6.36 billion operating loss in 2025 is the principal drag — partially offset by the contracted AI compute revenue now flowing from Anthropic ($1.25 billion/month) and Google ($920 million/month) through the Colossus data centers in Memphis. Combined, the Colossus contracts generate approximately $2.17 billion per month in contracted revenue, an annualized $26 billion from a segment that barely existed two years ago.
The Structural Demand Story - MSCI and Nasdaq-100
Two index inclusion events create structural demand over the weeks following listing — demand that is largely price-insensitive because index funds must buy to maintain their benchmark weights regardless of valuation.
MSCI Global Standard Indexes — starts June 13
MSCI announced on June 9 it will apply early inclusion treatment to SPCX, making it eligible for its Global Standard Indexes from June 13 — the second day of trading. Every passive fund tracking MSCI indexes begins buying on day two. With only a 4% initial float (555.5 million shares out of 13.1 billion total), even modest index inflows will move the price substantially. MSCI-tracking funds collectively manage trillions of dollars in assets.
Nasdaq-100 — eligible on or around July 7
Nasdaq amended its inclusion rules in May 2026, shortening the Nasdaq-100 waiting period from approximately three months to just 15 trading days for megacap IPOs among the 40 largest nonfinancial companies. Based on a June 12 listing, SpaceX would be eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion on or around July 7, 2026. QQQ — the world's most traded ETF by volume — and every other Nasdaq-100 tracker would be required to buy SPCX at that point.
The combination of a 4% float with two waves of mandatory institutional buying — MSCI from June 13 and Nasdaq-100 from July 7 — is an unusual structural setup. It does not mean the stock will rise; price discovery is the entire point of a first trading day. But it does mean the first 30 days of trading will have a structural bid that most IPOs do not have.
The Valuation Gap - $1.77 Trillion vs $780 Billion
The most important number in SpaceX's IPO is the one most buyers will not pay attention to: Morningstar's formal fair value estimate of $780 billion — 44% of the $1.77 trillion IPO price. Morningstar's analysts note that only Starlink is profitable, xAI is projected to burn approximately $10 billion in 2026, and the governance structure (Musk controls 85% of votes through supervoting shares) means public shareholders have essentially no governance influence over the company they are buying.
The bull case is ARK Invest's projection of $2.5 trillion by 2030, based on Starlink reaching 100 million subscribers, Starship achieving commercial viability at scale, and the xAI Colossus infrastructure continuing to generate contracted revenue from AI labs. At 109-116x SpaceX's 2025 trailing revenue, the IPO price requires sustained hypergrowth from multiple vectors simultaneously to be justified.
Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the SEC requesting a delay to the offering over governance concerns — specifically the dual-class share structure giving Musk 85% vote control. A letter does not stop an IPO, and the listing is proceeding on schedule. The first public earnings report is expected in November 2026, which will be the first time the market can verify the company's numbers against its S-1 disclosures.
The Post-IPO Calendar
| Date |
Event |
Significance |
| June 12, 2026 |
First day of trading |
Price discovery. High volatility expected on 4% float |
| June 13, 2026 |
MSCI inclusion begins |
Passive index fund buying starts. Structural demand wave 1 |
| June 15, 2026 |
IPO offering closes |
Greenshoe option window opens (30 days) |
| ~July 7, 2026 |
Nasdaq-100 eligible |
QQQ and all Nasdaq-100 trackers must buy. Structural demand wave 2 |
| November 2026 |
First public earnings |
First independent verification of S-1 financials. Key valuation anchor |
| ~June 13, 2027 |
366-day lockup expires |
Insider selling window opens. Morningstar's "Max Q" — maximum structural pressure on stock price |
Why This Is Also an AI Infrastructure Story
SpaceX is not just a rockets and satellites company anymore. Its Colossus data centers in Memphis — built for xAI's model training — are now the most sought-after GPU compute in the world. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion per month for access to the Colossus 1 cluster (approximately 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs). Google signed a $920 million per month agreement on June 5, 2026 for approximately 110,000 GPUs for Gemini Enterprise workloads. Both contracts are terminable with 90 days' notice after December 31, 2026 — confirmed risk disclosed in the S-1.
The Colossus compute story makes SPCX simultaneously a space infrastructure stock, a satellite internet stock, and an AI infrastructure stock. Investors who are bullish on AI but want diversification away from pure-play model companies (OpenAI, Anthropic — both targeting their own IPOs in September and October 2026 respectively) have positioned SpaceX as the physical infrastructure layer of the AI boom. For more on those two listings and the context connecting all three, see our coverage of the OpenAI IPO S-1 filing and Google-SpaceX $920M compute deal. For all AI news see the June 2026 daily calendar and May 2026 archive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I still buy SPCX at $135?
The $135 IPO price was for allocations made before June 12 through Robinhood, Fidelity, Schwab, SoFi, and E*TRADE. On the open market starting today, SPCX trades at whatever price buyers and sellers agree on — which could be above or below $135. The IPO allocation window is closed. If you want SPCX now, you buy it on the Nasdaq at the current market price through any brokerage.
Is SpaceX profitable?
Partially. Starlink (the connectivity segment) is profitable with $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue and a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. The launch and space systems segment is also profitable. The xAI segment — merged with SpaceX in February 2026 — posted a $6.36 billion operating loss in 2025 and is projected to burn approximately $10 billion in 2026. The consolidated entity is not yet net profitable at the group level, but Starlink's trajectory suggests the path to profitability exists if xAI spending is controlled.
What is the greenshoe option?
The greenshoe (or overallotment option) allows the underwriters — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citigroup — to purchase up to an additional 83.3 million shares at the $135 IPO price within 30 days of the offering closing (by around July 15). If the stock trades above $135, the underwriters exercise the option and buy shares from SpaceX, increasing total proceeds by $11.2 billion to $86.2 billion. If the stock falls below $135, underwriters buy shares in the open market to support the price (using shares they were allocated at IPO). It is a standard stabilization mechanism.
What does Musk's 85% voting control mean for investors?
SpaceX uses a dual-class share structure. Class A shares (what the IPO sold) carry one vote each. Musk and other insiders hold Class B shares with 10 votes each. The result: Musk controls approximately 85% of all voting power despite owning a smaller percentage of economic equity. Public shareholders have essentially no governance influence — they cannot vote to change the board, block strategic decisions, or remove the CEO. Senator Warren flagged this to the SEC; it did not delay the IPO. For investors who weight governance, this is a material consideration. For investors who are betting on Musk's execution, it is a feature.
What happens in June 2027?
The 366-day insider lockup expires approximately June 13, 2027. This is the first window when employees, early investors, and pre-IPO shareholders can sell their SPCX shares on the open market. Morningstar called this "Max Q" — the moment of maximum structural pressure on the stock. With Musk holding the largest position and early employees and investors holding large stakes, June 2027 could see the largest potential insider selling event in market history. This is a known, disclosed risk — not a surprise — but it is a consideration for anyone holding SPCX through 2027.